Global energy outlook: not so great
The International Energy Agency has published an updated forecast of the world's energy consumption and the current trajectory of our changing climate, and the outlook isn't very optimistic. The usually staid organization opens its World Energy Outlook with this stark paragraph (PDF is here):
The world's energy system is at a crossroads. Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable -- environmentally, economically, socially. But that can -- and must -- be altered; there's still time to change the road we're on. It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing short of an energy revolution.
While transitory, fleeting economic circumstances have caused a plummet in oil and coal prices recently, the general momentum on energy costs continues to point inexorably upward, and resources continue their inevitable slide toward depletion. Although oil has plunged to one third of its record price recently, this is a wispy, transient phenomenon that is masking the overall trend and the inescapable conclusion: unless we act soon, we're screwed.
We still have a chance to avert shortages of energy supplies and catastrophic climate change, but action must be coordinated, swift, certain, and soon:
"One thing is certain," said Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's executive director, in a prepared statement. "While market imbalances will feed volatility, the era of cheap oil is over."
The energy resource problem is tied inextricably to the issue of climate change, since we continue obstinately and ignorantly along the path of burning hydrocarbons for energy:
The IEA estimates that $4.1 trillion in additional energy-efficiency investments is needed between 2010 and 2030 to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 parts per million (ppm) of carbon-dioxide (CO2) equivalent. To reduce concentrations to a lower 450 ppm, $2.4 trillion more would be needed to pay for low- or zero-carbon power plants, and $2.7 trillion for more energy-efficient equipment.
Some climate researchers, including James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, have stated that the atmosphere needs to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 350 ppm in order to avoid "irreversible catastrophic effects" [PDF]. The atmosphere currently contains an estimated 385 ppm of CO2 equivalent.
A radical transformation of our energy infrastructure is urgently needed. Once the oil industry shills vacate the White House, that transformation may actually be possible.