Tony Blair, reporting for duty
Yesterday, after Tony Blair stepped down as Prime Minister of the UK, he immediately took on his new job as Middle East envoy for the Quartet (the US, the UN, the EU, and Russia). The focus of the Quartet, and Blair's new job description, is to find a way toward a two-state solution to the Israel/Palestinian problem.
The Quartet seem to be ignoring recent events.
This is a rather startling development, and I don't think it bodes well for the Middle East. As Bush's "poodle," Blair fully supported the invasion of Iraq and was instrumental in helping to make sure "the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy" of invasion, according to the Downing Street Memo. He's hardly an impartial actor in the whole drama. Blair was also a big supporter of Israel's disproportionate attack against Lebanon last summer.
Predictably, Israel is thrilled. Ha'aretz said:
It would be hard to think of a more fitting appointment, at a more suitable time, than that of Tony Blair as the Quartet's Mideast envoy... Blair bringing with him his experiences in Northern Ireland and personal connections with US President George W Bush, and European and Middle Eastern leaders. His demonstrated friendship with Israel and his commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the territories is also an advantage.
The Palestinian Authority is somewhat more guarded but doesn't reject him out of hand:
The veteran Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said: "President Abbas welcomes the nomination of Mr Blair as envoy of the Quartet...(and) has given the assurance that he will work with (him) to arrive at a peaceful solution on the basis of two states."
The White House seems to be tempering expectations a little:
"He's not Superman, doesn't have a cape," said White House spokesman Tony Snow.
"He's not designed to be doing that. What he is designed to do is to work as an aggressive facilitator between the Quartet and interested parties to try to look for ways to make progress where in the past we have not seen the kind of progress we'd like."
Hamas, predictably, is not happy:
"According to our experience at the time he was the prime minister of Britain... he was not honest and was not helpful in solving the conflict in the Middle East," [Hamas spokesman Ghazi] Hamad said.
He added that Mr Blair had constantly adopted "the American and the Israeli position".
Given the fact that Hamas controls Gaza and holds widespread support in the West Bank (as well as significant sympathy across the Arab world), their opinion must be considered. They were voted into office (much to the surprise of the White House) and are therefore representative of at least certain portions of Palestinian public opinion. This move by the Quartet may well be an attempt to marginalize Hamas; if it is, it won't work. The Palestinians have a long history of being screwed over by the West, and if they perceive Blair as just another Balfour, nothing positive will come of his tenure.
Whether the West likes it or not, Hamas is a relevant force on the ground in the Israel/Palestine conflict. They must be included; else, we'll just see a continuation of the same old bloody history.
Of course, Hamas must recognize Israel's right to exist, and they must renounce violence as a political tool. But using Bush's "poodle" as the Quartet's mouthpiece isn't going to encourage them to do those things. If anything, it will probably make them dig in their heels. Furthermore, if the Palestinian people perceive Blair's task as one of marginalizing Hamas in favor of Abbas and Fatah, they're likely to gravitate even more toward the Hamas camp. They're sick of being bullied by the West, and it's not hard to imagine a knee-jerk Palestinian response that empowers Hamas even more.
I hope I'm wrong.